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Why 5 percent mortgage rates aren’t a threat

Jun 20, 2018
Mortgage rates are on the rise. Could that derail sales? According to First American’s Potential Home Sales model, even if the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5 percent, the impact on the housing market would be modest.
 
Many economists are predicting that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 5 percent by the end of 2018 or early 2019.
 
First American’s Potential Home Sales model estimates the potential for existing-home sales based on market fundamentals. The market potential for existing-home sales based on current fundamentals is 6.11 million at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. If the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5 percent, the impact would be a slight decline to 6.1 million existing-home sales, according to the model.

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May 2019 Housing Market

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